In the SOF community, we talk about risk before we conduct any mission. Though, on the surface, it may look like it’s all Hail Marys and goal-line heroics, the truth is that everything comes down to a calculus of risk, reward, and the ever-present forces of reality.
Everything we do, from a fitness session to a combat operation, is screened through a risk assessment matrix because Soldiering is a fundamentally dangerous profession. Leaders assess the severity and probability of risk relative to the potential value of the activity.
The question isn't whether we're taking risk. We always are. The question is whether the remaining risk is justified by the potential rewards.
Necessary risks are when the gains outweigh the costs and potential risks.
Unnecessary risks are when the costs and potential risks outweigh the gains.
High risk is not the the determining factor that justifies acceptability or unacceptability. Some missions justify extraordinary exposure because the objective is worth it and leaders have done everything possible to mitigate risk. The problem isn't high risk. The problem is accepting risks whose potential costs far outweigh the value of success.
Taking necessary risk is boldness.
Taking unnecessary risk is hubris.
Necessary risk is risk to accomplish the mission.
Unnecessary risk is risk for risk’s sake.
As Jeff Goldblum said in the 1993 classic, Jurassic Park, “Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, that they didn't stop to think if they should.”
Tale as old as time.
In Afghanistan, from 2002–2003, our missions required us to travel the Pech River Valley Road, “IED Alley”, at the time the most dangerous road on earth due to all the roadside bomb strikes (IED, Improvised Explosive Device). Based on the risk assessment, we determined to only travel at night, under night vision, in blackout conditions. We managed the risks, which enabled us to execute our missions–calculated risk.
In doing so, we stayed on the right side of boldness.
Others did not.
Asadabad, Afghanistan 2003; MH47 sling loads a dead Humvee (photo courtesy of Mark S.)
I would suggest, at times, their leaders were compromised by hubris and the costs of taking unnecessary risks were permanent. On IED Alley, killed vehicles were the best-case scenario, lost Soldiers the worst, along with a number of potential consequences in between.
These things happen, “A little at a time and then all at once,” as my partner Blayne often says (a nod to Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises, 1926). Each time we take unnecessary risks and they work out, we get baited into believing it was acceptable.
We mistake hubris for boldness.
Little by little, we take bigger and bigger risks because they work out.
Until they don’t.
It’s also worth noting that we can take necessary risks with all the best mitigating practices involved and still get bitten. That is life in an uncertain world. The key for us as leaders is to control the controllables, execute with confidence, and decisively work through setbacks when reality strikes.
The calculus is the same in life and leadership. You don’t have to be running missions in a war zone to assess risks in your business. Life is inherently risky. The key is to take fewer unnecessary risks than necessary risks, and to take mitigating steps when you do. Otherwise, we never discover what's possible because we've never taken any risks at all.
I’m thinking about this a lot as I prepare for a canyoneering trip to Arches National Park and review route reports from people far more experienced than me. It’s fairly easy for me to allow my Ranger hubris to take point and attempt a canyon I have no business in. But I’m older, my body doesn’t bounce back the way it used to, and I have other adventures on the horizon that require me to be upright and fit. So I’m more inclined to pull back to a few bold routes and some peaceful campfires with my Ranger Buddy.
Just that time alone is the primary objective, and being at a campsite instead of the ER because I took on unnecessary risk in a 3A R+ rated canyon is winning the day, though the temptation is there.
And though I have a higher risk tolerance than most, I’m reminding myself of this wisdom.
We are well to stay on the right side of boldness and steer clear of the wrong side of hubris.
